Jason Dannelly Selects Winners of the First Round of the NAIA Football Championship Series

10339739_1703721843187182_1827114446610379474_nWe’ve been on the “road” for so many years that its odd for me to envision a “race” to the NAIA National Championship. Especially given the driving conditions I had cross country the last few years getting to Rome. Although two buses stranded on I-75 in Georgia and the stories from all those involved is still one of my favorite memories from 2010.

But this year the NAIA will embark on the first of three title games in Daytona Beach aptly title the “Race to Daytona.” Previous incarnations of the game saw us on the “Road to Savannah” and the “Road to Rome.” The racing moniker fits the host and also the attitude of several of the NAIA’s best who are definitely in the fast lane towards the NAIA title game. (See what I did there?)

It’s so tough for me to pick any major upsets in the first round of the NAIA Football Championship Series in any given year. Typically if you select the chalk, you are bound to get five or six of the eight games correct. Last year the only upset was Tabor defeating Benedictine in the first round (11 over an 8). In 2012 there were two upsets, same with 2011.

But that’s not to say the NAIA postseason doesn’t go without it’s occasional craziness. In 1998, five underdogs garnered victories in the NAIA’s opening round of the championship series seeing the No. 1, No. 2, No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7 teams in the county knocked off in game one of the postseason. This led to a national championship game where the No. 8 Azusa Pacific Cougars won their first national championship game over the No. 11 Olivet Nazarene Tigers. Continue reading

157 Moments that Shaped My NAIA Experience

My first experience with the NAIA came in 1996 when I went to watch my brother play college football at Dana College. He redshirted his first year, so I didn’t actually get to see him play that fall but my Dad and I went to a bunch of the games anyway just so we could get a chance to watch his team play.

Two year’s later I joined him and started playing college football at the NAIA level. I’m not trying to romanticize what my time associated with the NAIA has been because there have been as many downs for me as there has been ups. Like anything in life, you learn from the downs and probably remember the ups for a little bit more than they actually were.

Even though I started watching my brother in 1996, I probably didn’t really know what the NAIA was until 1999 or 2000. That’s when I got started working more college media events and was traveling as the radio voice of Dana College and Midland Lutheran College women’s basketball (now Midland University)

Despite stepping away from the day-to-day duties of the Victory Sports Network a few years ago it seems like I will always be associated with VSN and the NAIA. I’ve written, broadcast and covered professional sports, NCAA sports and high schools sports but regardless of all of that people always ask me about the NAIA.

That’s both good and bad. It’s nice to be considered the person who is the “beat writer” for NAIA athletics because information flows your way more frequently than it would say if you were just a college sports writer. But in the same respect, any article I write on any other subject is discounted because I’m “that NAIA writer.”

I hated that people feel that way about the NAIA because of the truly magnificent things that are accomplished at this level of athletics. And before the haters come out of the wood work to say “well DII and DIII do the blah blah blah same” I want to assure you that I am not discounting any of the efforts that take place at those levels. All I’m saying is when you have the blue oval and those four white letters behind you, you are already ahead of your fellow small college counterparts in the NAIA. If you don’t believe me, ask the enrollment driven schools of DII and DIII to remove all mention of their collegiate affiliation from their marketing materials and their coaches recruiting pitches for one year and see how it affects recruitment.

I’ve personally heard coaches say to recruits “well, we’re NCAA DII now… “ and talk down about members in the NAIA. Meanwhile they walk these recruits past trophy cases filled with NAIA hardware.

My experience the NAIA has been a wild ride. I never set out to start a web site that would become a national leader in NAIA news and opinions. All I wanted to do was have a message board where people could come and talk about NAIA football. I literally started the site because I wasn’t able to take the day after the fourth of July off in 2002 and I went into work at an office where I was the only person around. So I jumped on that crappy office Compaq computer and started a message board.

I started thinking about the start of VSN lately and all of the things that I have seen happen. I’ve never really sat down and shared those moments with people because I thought I was too busy and didn’t have the time. Sure, some of these moments are a lot more special to me than they are the NAIA, its members or people within the division. The point is that everyone has a list of great memories at this level and I think if they actually sat down and wrote them out they would understand how very special the NAIA level is and that people should never write off the experience just because it happens to take place at a level of college athletics that isn’t the NCAA.

1. Meeting fans that are truly passionate about the NAIA. It’s rare you meet people that have knowledge of NAIA athletics, so when you do it’s like Christmas. Especially when it is in a random place and they happen to be wearing a t-shirt from some obscure college that you happen to be the only person in the room to know.

2. That moment you look out of the University of Sioux Falls charter plane to Helena, Mont. and see what looks like a sidewalk cleared for you to land on.

3. Freddy T’s during the old NAIA Championship Site in Savannah, Tenn.

4. Old Havana Cigar Bar in Rome, Ga.

5. Pounds upon pounds of crab legs and oysters at Jefferson’s in Rome, Ga.

6. Joe Barker and the patented “MOVE those chains” when the NAIA football championship was in Savannah.

7. The 6th Floor of the Pickwick Inn and trading stories with David Long after the Banquet.

8. Being able to call some of the best athletic directors in the country your friend.

9. Going out for a night on the town in Helena, Mont with fans and alumni.

10. The Marysville House outside of Helena with the world’s simplest and best menu: Steak, Seafood, Chicken, Pork.

11. Before KC Power and Lights, meeting all the NAIA DI MBB Coaches at Tanners or the Quaaf.

12. The occasional jar of Apple Pie from a coaching staff in Kentucky.

13. Seeing schools for the first time in 2002 and seeing how much they have built or improved in the last 12 years.

14. Watching football programs be built and overnight become national powers.

15. Having Andy Lambert (Sterling College) coach one of your teams in the VSN Senior Classic and realizing what a truly special coach he is.

16. The first time you hear the high school bands in Municipal Auditorium in KC.

17. The Georgetown College band at the NAIA DI MBB tournament.

18. Enjoying a late night pie run to Perkins with assistant football coaches the night before a football game.

19. The day I met Matt Zimmer, the football beat writer for former NAIA member University of Sioux Falls. I haven’t met another writer who was as gifted, funny and fearless as Zim. He has a writing style that should have him writing nationally and as well as for the Argus Leader.

20. Being able to have a personal relationship with Bruce Brown when he was the NAIA’s Champions of Character presenter. If parents, coaches and athletes enacted to 10 percent of Bruce’s message, athletics in general would be completely different. Don’t believe me? Check out proactivecoaching.info

21. Walking into the NAIA’s old Olathe headquarters and listening to the manufacturing of Honeywell products.

22. Having former Saint Francis (Ind.) QB Eric Hooks help me calm the victims of a car accident that happened right outside the hotel for our VSN Senior Game.

23. Meeting Kevin Donley of Saint Francis (Ind.) and feeling like you were instantly accepted into his family.

24. Running into NAIA coaches at a White Castle in Louisville, Ky. during football coaches’ convention and pounding down greasy sliders with them.

25. Having the opportunity to hire my staff when College Fanz bought VSN and developing some of the best friendships of my life with those co-workers.

26. Having one of those coworkers bust into your hotel room the night before a broadcast, jump on your bed and slap you across the face because you decided to go home early.

27. Seeing the Shiloh Civil War Memorial and getting a guided tour of the grounds.

28.  Ruining a pair of new Nike shoes because you were shooting photos at what is now known as “The Mud Bowl.”

29. Being able to brag (to no one at all) that you were at every game of the NAIA basketball tournament from Wednesday morning through Saturday night.

30. Meeting a broadcaster who thought he could announce every one of those games and watching him go down in flames four games in.

31. Going on a spring football tour and meeting former Paul Quinn head coach Archie “The Gunslinger” Cooley and even though I spoke to him on the phone several times, including the day before I arrived, he had no idea who I was or why I was there.

32. Being able to get the cell phone number of hundreds of coaches and having them actually pick up when you call. (My friends hit “ignore”)

33. Driving up to a school to broadcast a game and having the entire crew say “so, where are we broadcasting from?”

34. The Cozy Inn in Salina, Kan.

35. The bathroom experience in McPherson, Kan. where there might have been a bomb exploded due to point No. 34 of this list.

36. Having to swat and kill a bat that was flying in my room in the “President’s House” at Geneva College. Then realizing my life had become Chris Farley’s from “Black Sheep”.

37. Meeting Frosty Westering before he passed away and having multiple phone conversations with him.

38. Having an autographed copy of “Make the Big Time Where You Are” with a personal note from Frosty.

39. Meeting so many people whose lives were touched by Frosty.

40. Meeting a person who was an NAIA staffer and not getting off on the right foot only to turn into great friends years later.

41. Meeting NAIA staff you still consider to be friends regardless of your differences.

42. Effie Burgers in Lewiston, Idaho.

43. Randomly meeting Greg Beachner on the sidelines of Sioux Falls football games and eventually hiring his extremely talented son to work for VSN.

44. Meeting an MidAmerica Nazarene graduate on the VSN message boards and eventually hiring him as the business’s CPA.

45. Being able to attend the NAIA World Series in Lewiston, Idaho and realize what a truly special event it is.

46. Ed Cheff. Enough said.

47. Watching your alma mater win a national championship in wrestling.

48. Watching a member of that national championship team become a world champion in the UFC.

49. Knowing the first members of the NAIAFootball.net message board personally.

50. Becoming great friends with some of those members.

51. Broadcasting a football game with one of those members.

52. Taking photos with the College Fanz Crew with our “fans” at a McDonalds in Missouri Valley…extremely hungover.

53. Meeting and having a conversation with Jim Spivey, an NAIA basketball legend.

54. Hearing Ray Harper from Oklahoma City University tell the story of how he got hired to the person that hired him and not remember the last time you laughed that hard.

55. Meeting the guy that hired him, Jim Abbott, and realizing how truly great he is at his job.

56. Meeting the people that started the DII and DIII web sites.

57. Being able to shut up and listen when you sit down at a table of some of the best minds in small college athletics.

58. Watching the TV show “Justified” and know the towns they are talking about because you’ve been to Williamsburg, Corbin and Barbourville.

59. Standing on the sideline when Saint Xavier University won the NAIA football championship and seeing Mike Feminis jump into his assistant coaches’ arms.

60. Putting a microphone on Gary Wagner of Carroll College and listening to his every word.

61. Watching coaches start in the NAIA and move up into prominent jobs in DI.

62. Broadcasting NAIA DI basketball games with coaches who have just been eliminated.

63. Watching those coaches come into their own behind the mic and eventually turn into sports talk show hosts.

64. Watching a SportsCenter Top 10 and seeing a highlight and instantly knowing its an NAIA team.

65. Texting the coach of the NAIA team on SportsCenter to give them a bad time about it.

66. The great “Ice Storm” that left Sioux Falls and Carroll College stuck on the interstate in Georgia and the tweets and text messages that followed.

67. Fan meet ups at random.

68. Actually driving on the “Highway 20” that the Zac Brown Band sang about while going to Rome.

69. Randomly meeting Nicole Chin on the sideline of one of the NAIA’s postseason playoff games and eventually hiring her as the graphic artist and designer that made the NAIA Preview magazine look great.

70. Some of the longest car drives across the country to places normal people have never heard of.

71. Playing $2 blackjack with oil field workers in the hotel lobby of a random hotel in Minot, N.D. the night before a broadcast.

72. Having one of the largest human beings I’ve ever been around walk up to me in a bar and scare the living hell out of me saying, “So…I’m only a second team All-American?” before laughing and introducing themselves.

73. Being publicly scolded at a Hall of Fame induction by Bob Petrino Sr. because the NAIA “screwed” his 1983 team out of a postseason… . even though I never worked for the NAIA and was born in 1980.

74. Having a fan accuse you of being bias toward Saint Francis (Ind.) because “you are related to their coaches.” (Note, my name is spelled Dannelly and their name is spelled Donley)

75.  Finding a used condom in the broadcast booth of a school that will remain nameless.

76. Thinking you will have hundreds of fans show up to your pregame show broadcast only to get a few random people wandering in and out of the picture.

77. Having a dance party on I-80 outside of Chicago because traffic was at a complete stop.

78. Being disappointed every time a great NAIA coach gets passed over for a job at a higher level.

79. Being able to say I never fell from or had to get a tetanus shot from the old press box at MidAmerica Nazarene.

80. Having a hard drive full of bloopers from our broadcasts and random instant replays that were kept.

81. Deciding that after an initial 28 hour drive to California, a game broadcast and a postseason announcement broadcast that a four hour stopover in Las Vegas on the way home was a good idea.

82. Brandi Benson’s scarf.

83. Ripping the seat out of my pants while changing a tire on a trip back from San Antonio.

84. Never being able to look at a Dodge Sprinter van the same ever again.

Before you point out there are not 157 bullet points to this list know that it will be continued and added to randomly. After the initial list is published I’m sure I’ll have friends and coworkers say “hey, remember that time…”

This isn’t meant to be a “look at me list” rather it’s a list of things that I hope will allow others to pause for a moment and realize what a truly special place the NAIA is and how it has shaped so many lives as athletes, coaches and administrators.

I’ll be the first to say the NAIA is far from perfect. Hell, nothing is perfect and if anything I’m a prime example of imperfection. But what the NAIA can be is the perfect place at the perfect time for college athletics. With all the changes happening in the NCAA, the NAIA provides the niche that more teams in DII and DIII should gravitate towards.

Somewhere along the way, everyone loses their way. The NCAA is at a crossroads because the majority of their members are a lot closer to looking like NAIA members than looking like the DI members that are driving the bus.

The NAIA, now more than every, needs to clearly define, promote and build upon the void they can fill in collegiate athletics. College athletics should be about the experience of the student athlete and providing them with every opportunity to have a great experience.

That needs to be the central focus of everything the NAIA does going forward. Not chip and dip sponsorships, not telling everyone why the NAIA is great and definitely not new legislation that makes the organization look more and more like the NCAA.

The athletes in the NAIA are truly special and someday some of them will sit down and write out a long list of why their experience at whatever NAIA College they went to was great. Let’s just make sure when they do step away they can say that the NAIA experience truly helped to shape their lives.

NAIA Football National Championship Photos from Jason Dannelly – Set 1

Jason Dannelly: The Final Days of Rome and Ranking the Rome Title Games.

Make no doubt about it, I have loved every trip that I have made to the NAIA Football National Championships. Each year has a different feel and results in new stories to tell down the road. Maybe someday I’ll write a book about all the NAIA football title games I have attended, however I might need to change a few names along the way.

After ten consecutive title games, the excitement still has not worn off for me. I still get juiced up to see the best in the NAIA compete for the honor of being called the best in the division. However, with that excitement this year I can’t help but feel a sense of remorse heading into this weekend.

The toughest thing about this week in Rome, Ga. is knowing this is without a doubt the last time the NAIA Football Championship will be in this fine city. Since 2008, Rome has been the host of the championship and its citizens have welcomed fans of eight different NAIA football teams to enjoy their city and allowed them to enjoy it like their own. Rome has set the bar pretty high for the future host of the title game.

If the previous host city, Savannah, Tenn., introduced me to southern hospitality then the city of Rome helped to redefine and reinforce it. The people of this city and the organizers of the event have gone above and beyond to take the NAIA football championship to a new level.

Probably the biggest complaint about Savannah at the time of the switch to Rome was the facility the game was held in. The athletes were certainly honored well and there was never a moment where people felt that special feeling was lacking but the field and facility left plenty to be desired.

The switch to Rome gave the participants of the game better facilities every year the game was played. The first year the game was on grass and after a week of heavy rains, the people of Floyd County knew they needed to commit to making upgrades at historic Barron Stadium.

Since then, the field has been turfed, a video board was installed, the locker rooms were upgraded and then entrance to the facility was completely revamped. Needless to say, the facility for the game rivals that of the top in the NAIA division now.

The bar has been raised and I hope the future host in Daytona Beach, Fla. can answer the call to continue to make this event great not only for the teams involved, but also for the fans attending the game. I’ll admit, I do not know anything more than what you can google off the internet about the new site and people involved. They certainly appear to know what they are doing, but I hope they don’t forget what has made this event special since 1996.

When a fan walks into a local cafe for breakfast or goes to one of the local watering holes late at night, they are greeted with a smile and a warmness from the people of the community. It’s a calming, peacefulness that you get from your neighbor that you’ve never met before, but you know you are going to get along.

That’s the feeling I get every time I come to this city and I certainly hope that it can continue in Florida.

Ranking the NAIA Title Games in Rome, Ga.:

No. 5 – (2008) Sioux Falls def. Carroll College, 23-7. Sioux Falls had one of the NAIA’s toughest defenses of all-time in this game and they were facing Carroll College’s 3rd string QB due to all the injuries from earlier in the year.

No. 4 – (2010) Carroll def. Sioux Falls, 10-7. Neither team could get much going offensively. These two teams were so good on defense that it was going to take one big play to win this, which Carroll delivered on.

No. 3 – (2009) Sioux Falls def. Lindenwood, 25-22. Another close one. More offense than what we saw in the previous games but ultimately the USF defense came up big.

No. 2 – (2011) Saint Xavier def. Carroll College, 24-20. SXU was the first team not named Carroll or Sioux Falls to win the game since 2001. Add in the vertical jump of Mike Feminis of SXU at the end of the game I witnessed and it was truly one of the finest sports moments I was a part of.

No.1 – (2012) Marian def. Morningside, 30-27 in OT. Overtime, national championship game? What’s better than that? Great game, back and forth. Good offensive showing to keep the crowd entertained.

We will have to wait and see Saturday night where Cumberlands/Grand View stacks up. The pregame anticipation has certainly increased the excitement around this game and the interaction via social media has brought even more exhilaration to the table.

Jason Dannelly Predicts NAIA Semifinals: Carroll/Cumberlands and Grand View/Morningside

Rivalries are what make NAIA football great. There is nothing better than going to a small college game in any part of the country and witnessing two teams that truly have beef with one another duke it out on the field. Small college rivalries are the purest form of rivalries often born out of anger or spite years ago, before the current players had even heard of the school they are playing for.

But as much as I enjoy seeing Carroll College vs. Montana Tech or USF/Saint Xavier the rivalries born out of the postseason become better than one could ever imagine. Morningside at Grand View has the makings of what could become one of the NAIA’s best postseason rivalries.

All season long, I have paid attention to the world of social media and the comment sections on NAIA.org after they post the latest coaches rankings and its pretty apparent that at least the fans of Morningside and Grand View have been paying attention to one another. Not only is Saturday’s game for the right to go to Rome, Ga. but its also for the title of “Best Small College Football Team in the State of Iowa.”

Carroll College at Cumberlands takes on the same style of rivalry feel without as much familiarity. Cumberlands has had a very good football program for a number of years now and when John Bland took over the program it got the shot in the arm it needed to become recognized nationally in the NAIA. For years, UC players and coaches have watched the Saints be one of the most dominant teams in NAIA football waiting for their chance to go toe-to-toe with the most successful NAIA team in the last ten years.

This Saturday all scores will be settled and we will walk away with the two best teams in the NAIA having their tickets punched to Rome.

Predictions
Morningside at Grand View: What’s the old saying? Defense wins championships? Morningside ranks 10th in the NAIA for total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Grand View ranks 7th in the NAIA for total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. Needless to say, these two teams have dominated their competition.

The argument I would make is that Grand View saw a greater amount of offensive talent this season than Morningside did. The Vikings have had to hold down the likes of DI-FCS Drake, St. Francis (Ind.), Saint Xavier and Saint Ambrose during the regular season. While I respect the GPAC, the offensive talent this season in the conference is not on par with what the MSFA had to offer.

There is no doubt, the Morningside offense is a force to be reckoned with. They can run the ball with the best of the NAIA and if they need to play a game of pitch and catch all day they can do that too. The real question becomes whether or not Morningside’s defensive will be able to stop Grand View. Against top competition this year, Morningside’s D has given up a lot of points. Northwestern put up 38 in the Mustangs only loss, Baker put up 28, Rocky Mountain 21, Dakota Wesleyan scored 27 and Concordia had 31. Meanwhile last week’s 24 points to Tabor College was the most the Vikings had given up all season with the next highest being 21.

All stats aside, this is the sort of NAIA football game you want to see, whether its live streaming video or in Iowa’s capital city. Des Moines is a nice sports town and I hope the football fans in the area decide to come out and see what will be a great college football game. Final Prediction: Grand View 35 Morningside 27

The City of Williamsburg, Ky. is about to be invaded by one of college football’s most storied programs and greatest group of fans. It’s one of those football events I wish I could be at just to see the interaction among players, fans and coaches.

Probably the biggest misnomer about Cumberlands is that they never pass the ball. Owners of the NAIA’s best rushing offense at 365 yards per game, the Patriots still average 100 yards per game and have thrown for 18 passing touchdowns this season. So the expectation of Carroll just putting eight in the box and stuffing the UC run isn’t quite the reality of this game.

There is no doubt about it, Cumberlands is good because they can run the football and their defense will shut you down when they need to. UC is 11th in scoring defense and 21st in total defense but those stats aren’t indicative of how hard this team has had to battle late to win football games. Reinhart, Georgetown and Lindsey Wilson all had the Patriots sweating bullets until the very end of their games during the regular season.

Carroll College has also been tested at times this year and even has an early blemish to Eastern Oregon on their record. The Saints have the NAIA’s No. 2 scoring defense and 12th best total defense. But the one team statistic that has drawn the most interest from these two coaching staffs is the Saints ability to stop the run. Carroll College only gives up 104 yards per game this season and last week only surrendered 62 rushing yards to Missouri Valley.

Offensively the Saints are fourth in the NAIA running the football and 18th in total offense per game. Essentially, if you want to see two of the best rushing offenses in the NAIA you will need to watch this game.

This game is a lot more even than I think people originally thought. While Cumberlands is undefeated, they haven’t exactly walked all over their competition this season and the Saints aren’t the steamroller they were when they won national titles year after year. But both programs are very good and this game will come down to field position and turnovers. Final Prediction: Carroll College 17 Cumberlands 13.

Would I be surprised if I went 0-2 this week on my predictions? Absolutely not. That’s how close these four teams are and how competitive the NAIA has become in recent years. One could even argue that with different matchups (Morningside vs Cumberlands and Carroll vs Grand View) that the result of those games could be very different.

When the final scores come in on Saturday, two teams will have their tickets punched to Rome and two teams will be left picking up the pieces of their shattered dreams. But in the end, fans of NAIA football can be proud that four of the best representations of what your organization stands for are playing for a shot to be the best at their level.

Jason Dannelly’s Predictions for the NAIA Quarterfinals

So I missed last week. Whoops. I had my picks in my head but never got time to sit in front of a computer and let them be known. However, anyone that knows how I bank a lot on the history of NAIA football in the postseason knows how I would have selected my games last week. It is very seldom that I ever pick against a team that is playing at home in the first round. The only times I’ve done it in the past is when a top team lost in the final week of the season to have a slight drop in the polls.

This year, I would not have picked against any one the home teams in the first round based on how the season has gone and if anyone would have asked me about a potential upset, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Benedictine would lose to Tabor. Tabor is a great team with one of the best coaches in the NAIA getting them prepped every week.

This week is always the most unpredictable week in the NAIA postseason. There are many factors that contribute to upsets making it even more difficult to predict just exactly will happen. Travel, thanksgiving, weather and teams being over/under rated all season all come to light.

For instance, had Morningside not slipped up to Northwestern a few weeks back we would have the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country facing off in Baldwin City, Kan. this week. But that loss dropped Morningside and what we have this week might be the best game of the postseason to date.

The “trap game” of this week is Grand View hosting Tabor. Everyone is looking at this game saying, “There’s just no way Tabor goes into Grand View and knocks off the Vikings. GV is just too good.”

Well keep in mind a lot of people said the same thing last week about Tabor against Benedictine and we all know how that worked out. Mike Gardner is just one of those coaches who you can never count his teams out of anything. They are well coached, always prepped and play extremely hard.

A match up fans of the NAIA have long awaited is Missouri Valley at Carroll College. Over the last 10 years there have been few programs in the NAIA that have been as consistent as these two. Add in the fact they also have two of the NAIA’s best coaches and it makes it even more entertaining.

Last and certainly not least is Saint Francis (Ind.) traveling south to Cumberlands. Once again, two great programs that have been around the top of the NAIA for years.

I’ll keep it brief with my predictions and give you a line on why each team wins and then predict my winner:

Tabor at Grand View: Tabor wins because they go in and out physical Grand View and win the turnover battle. Grand View wins because they keep doing what they did all year with no let down. My Prediction: Grand View.

Morningside at Baker: The team who wins this game will have fewer turnovers. It’s that simple. Both teams are going to run the ball tough and its a matter of who holds onto it. My Prediction: Morningside (and this was the toughest one to predict).

Saint Francis at Cumberlands: USF wins because they shut down the run. Cumberlands wins because they force USF into turnovers. My Prediction: Cumberlands.

Missouri Valley at Carroll College: MoVal wins if they force Carroll to turn the ball over and they score early in the game. Carroll wins if they shutdown MoVal’s offense and grind it out. My Prediction: Carroll College.

Going into the games this week, I still don’t think you can say, “Yep, this team is the favorite to win the National Championship.”

Every team has a lot of question marks and as the season wears on those get answered and exposed. Grand View is by far the most battle tested team on paper while Cumberlands has quietly gone about their business winning week after week. The amount of parity in the NAIA this year is crazy.

No. 8, No. 12, No 15 and No. 19. Those were the preseason ratings of the top four teams in the NAIA Championship Series. With no clear cut favorite in NAIA football, it only makes this weekend more exciting.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Last weekend was one of the craziest weekends of NAIA football late in the season that I can remember. Several upsets to teams in the Top 25 did nothing but make the entire postseason picture blurrier.  From the looks of it, the team that was hurt the most was Benedictine who was in position to potentially host two NAIA postseason games to now looking like they will have to travel the entire postseason if the new rankings hold true for another week.

Cumberlands, Grand View, Carroll, Baker, Morningside, St. Francis (Ind.), Missouri Valley and Ottawa are all in position to make the postseason (as long as their schools bid the minimum required to guarantee a home game).  Every other team will go on the road in the first round, which is an incredibly tough task.

Here is a breakdown of how everything looks, conference by conference in the NAIA heading into the final week of the regular season:

CSFL: Langston beat Bacone last weekend, which basically has taken the Warriors out of the mix and inserted the Lions as the only team with a chance to make it into the postseason. With a No. 24 ranking, it will be tough for Langston to move up past No. 20 in order to make the postseason. They must win this weekend and hope the voting in the final poll goes their way.
Today’s Prediction: Possible Langston.

Frontier: Carroll College defeated Rocky Mountain in a thriller in Helena last weekend to claim the Frontier Conference crown. The Saint are guaranteed a spot in the postseason after last year’s absence. If Rocky Mountain takes care of business this weekend against MSU-Northern they will also make the postseason. However if they slip up and lose, then they are done.
Today’s Prediction: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain.

GPAC: Morningside’s loss to Northwestern last weekend hurts the Mustangs in terms of who and where they will play in the postseason. Northwestern’s win just put them into the conversation for a potential postseason qualifier. If the Red Raiders defeat Midland this weekend they should make it into the postseason given their No. 13 rating. Morningside has an interesting game this weekend against Doane College that could be a bit of a dogfight. Doane is coming off a loss to Briar Cliff University and this game will be the final one of the season for the Tigers. The Mustangs will need their “A-game” to ensure a win over the Tigers this week.
Today’s Prediction: Morningside and Northwestern.

HAAC: Missouri Valley’s dismantling of Benedictine was surprising but not shocking. I think everyone in the HAAC knew how good MVC was their win shows how far they have progressed this season from their early season loss to Ottawa. Peru State’s loss to Evangel will keep them out of the postseason making this week’s game against Baker their own personal national championship. With a No. 4 rating the Wildcats could lose and still make the postseason but need to be careful not to lose or else they will likely have to travel in the postseason. Unless something crazy happens, it looks like the HAAC should get three teams into the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Benedictine, Baker and Mo. Valley.

Independent: Mayville State lost to Valley City State last weekend ending any shred of hope for NAIA independents for the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: No Qualifier.

KCAC: Ottawa defeated Friends given them the edge over the Falcons in the conference. Going into this weekend postseason possibilities still exist for the Braves along with Tabor College and Sterling College. Ottawa and Tabor face off this weekend with the winner making the postseason and the loser likely out of the mix. Sterling plays in a dangerous game against Kansas Wesleyan on the road. If the Warriors win, one would think they would end the season rated high enough to make the NAIA championship series.
Today’s Prediction: Ottawa and Sterling.

MSC-East:  No change from last week. The University of the Cumberlands has won the conference and are now the No. 1 team in the country. Congrats to John Bland and his staff who have worked tirelessly to get the program to where it is today. Lindsey Wilson and Georgetown College face off this weekend in a game that will determine who will make the NAIA Championship Series. Given their ratings (LWC at No. 15 and Georgetown at No. 16) there isn’t anyway to lose this game and make the postseason. The postseason starts Saturday for these two teams for what is essentially a play in game.
Today’s Prediction: U-Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT

MSC-West: Reinhardt lost to Campbellsville dropping them out of the postseason conversation. With a No. 10 ranking this week it would appear Faulkner is the only team from this conference who will be playing in the postseason.  The Eagles need to defeat Kentucky Christian to ensure they will make the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Faulkner.

MSFA-Mideast: USF (Ind.) is still in control of their postseason destiny as they go into the final week of the season against Marian.  USF (Ill.) defeated MSFA Crossover opponent St. Ambrose last week and with a No. 17 ranking they may have entered their name into the conversation for an at-large berth.
Today’s Prediction: Saint Francis (Ind.).

MSFA-Midwest: Grand View wins the conference and automatically makes the postseason. However, with Saint Ambrose’s loss to USF (Ill.) the Bees have seriously damaged their chances at making the postseason. SAU is now ranked No. 17 and will need to make a significant jump in the final rating to make the postseason.  Saint Xavier is rated No.21 and will need to make an even more significant jump in order to make the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Grand View. With Saint Ambrose possible.

For those of you keeping score, my November 11th prediction for the NAIA postseason looks like this:

  • Central States Football League: None
  • Frontier Conference: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain
  • Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside College and Northwestern College
  • Heart of America Athletic Conference: Benedictine, Baker and Missouri Valley.
  • Independents: None
  • Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Sterling College and Ottawa University
  • Mid-South Conference East: Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT
  • Mid South Conference West: Faulkner University
  • Mid States Football Association Mideast: Saint Francis (Ind.) and Saint Francis (Ill.)
  • Mid States Football Association Midwest: Grand View

So for those of you good at math, you can see above I have predicted 15 teams into the NAIA postseason because by the looks of the rankings either Langston or Saint Ambrose will be the last team left out of the postseason. If Langston gets into the Top 20, one would think Ambrose would miss out on the postseason due to their head-to-head loss with USF (Ill.). However if Langston only moves to No. 21 in the final rankings, then SAU will make the final spot.

The only real wildcard is if Peru State can upset No. 4 Baker University. Peru is tied for No. 19 and a win over Baker should vault them five or six spots next weekend. I’d also be one to say that if Peru State does pull off the upset, they would deserve to be in the postseason based on their body of work this season.

Friends at No. 19 along with No. 21 Saint Xavier just do not look to have the sort of firepower on their resume from this season that would warrant raters moving them into the final at large spot.

No. 12 Tabor, No. 14 Georgetown and No. 15 Lindsey Wilson are all in the win or go home category. You might even be able to put No. 8 Ottawa in that boat if they lose to Tabor. This season, losses to rated teams have been anywhere from a four to an eight spot drop in the rankings. While I wouldn’t suspect the coaches would drop Ottawa eight spots for losing to the No. 12 team in the country it would be a lot easier if Ottawa did not give them the chance to move them out. If Tabor loses to Ottawa, they may only drop to No. 16, which would give them a shot at the postseason but, a drop to No. 17 leaves them high and dry.

There just does not appear to be any feasible way for the loser of Georgetown and Lindsey Wilson to make the postseason. Win, or go home.

I make these predictions with the caveat that I suspect the higher rated teams will take care of business and not get upset in the final week of the season but inevitably something happens the final week of the season which completely throws everything off.  From the looks of the conference championships and automatic qualifiers in the NAIA, everyone in the top 15 should make the postseason with Langston’s final ranking determining if the top 16 will make it.