So I missed last week. Whoops. I had my picks in my head but never got time to sit in front of a computer and let them be known. However, anyone that knows how I bank a lot on the history of NAIA football in the postseason knows how I would have selected my games last week. It is very seldom that I ever pick against a team that is playing at home in the first round. The only times I’ve done it in the past is when a top team lost in the final week of the season to have a slight drop in the polls.
This year, I would not have picked against any one the home teams in the first round based on how the season has gone and if anyone would have asked me about a potential upset, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Benedictine would lose to Tabor. Tabor is a great team with one of the best coaches in the NAIA getting them prepped every week.
This week is always the most unpredictable week in the NAIA postseason. There are many factors that contribute to upsets making it even more difficult to predict just exactly will happen. Travel, thanksgiving, weather and teams being over/under rated all season all come to light.
For instance, had Morningside not slipped up to Northwestern a few weeks back we would have the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country facing off in Baldwin City, Kan. this week. But that loss dropped Morningside and what we have this week might be the best game of the postseason to date.
The “trap game” of this week is Grand View hosting Tabor. Everyone is looking at this game saying, “There’s just no way Tabor goes into Grand View and knocks off the Vikings. GV is just too good.”
Well keep in mind a lot of people said the same thing last week about Tabor against Benedictine and we all know how that worked out. Mike Gardner is just one of those coaches who you can never count his teams out of anything. They are well coached, always prepped and play extremely hard.
A match up fans of the NAIA have long awaited is Missouri Valley at Carroll College. Over the last 10 years there have been few programs in the NAIA that have been as consistent as these two. Add in the fact they also have two of the NAIA’s best coaches and it makes it even more entertaining.
Last and certainly not least is Saint Francis (Ind.) traveling south to Cumberlands. Once again, two great programs that have been around the top of the NAIA for years.
I’ll keep it brief with my predictions and give you a line on why each team wins and then predict my winner:
Tabor at Grand View: Tabor wins because they go in and out physical Grand View and win the turnover battle. Grand View wins because they keep doing what they did all year with no let down. My Prediction: Grand View.
Morningside at Baker: The team who wins this game will have fewer turnovers. It’s that simple. Both teams are going to run the ball tough and its a matter of who holds onto it. My Prediction: Morningside (and this was the toughest one to predict).
Saint Francis at Cumberlands: USF wins because they shut down the run. Cumberlands wins because they force USF into turnovers. My Prediction: Cumberlands.
Missouri Valley at Carroll College: MoVal wins if they force Carroll to turn the ball over and they score early in the game. Carroll wins if they shutdown MoVal’s offense and grind it out. My Prediction: Carroll College.
Going into the games this week, I still don’t think you can say, “Yep, this team is the favorite to win the National Championship.”
Every team has a lot of question marks and as the season wears on those get answered and exposed. Grand View is by far the most battle tested team on paper while Cumberlands has quietly gone about their business winning week after week. The amount of parity in the NAIA this year is crazy.
No. 8, No. 12, No 15 and No. 19. Those were the preseason ratings of the top four teams in the NAIA Championship Series. With no clear cut favorite in NAIA football, it only makes this weekend more exciting.
Have a great Thanksgiving!