Jason Dannelly Previews the NAIA Football Quarterfinals

November 25, 2014 / jasondannelly / Leave a comment

I’m going to be completely honest. I hate round two of the NAIA Championship Series. I hate the way it’s put together, I hate when it’s played and I hate that after umpteen years no one has done anything to change it.

Some of my argument for change goes back to what I touched on last week via twitter and the need for the NAIA and its football coaches to consider a major rewrite of the NAIA Championship Series. Just like every other division of college football, things have changed. But the NAIA is the only organization that has not made a major change to its postseason qualification since it adopted its current form in 1997.

And there isn’t a person in the world that can convince me the state of NAIA football is the same now as it was in 1997. Continue reading →

Jason Dannelly Selects Winners of the First Round of the NAIA Football Championship Series

November 18, 2014November 18, 2014 / jasondannelly / Leave a comment

We’ve been on the “road” for so many years that its odd for me to envision a “race” to the NAIA National Championship. Especially given the driving conditions I had cross country the last few years getting to Rome. Although two buses stranded on I-75 in Georgia and the stories from all those involved is still one of my favorite memories from 2010.

But this year the NAIA will embark on the first of three title games in Daytona Beach aptly title the “Race to Daytona.” Previous incarnations of the game saw us on the “Road to Savannah” and the “Road to Rome.” The racing moniker fits the host and also the attitude of several of the NAIA’s best who are definitely in the fast lane towards the NAIA title game. (See what I did there?)

It’s so tough for me to pick any major upsets in the first round of the NAIA Football Championship Series in any given year. Typically if you select the chalk, you are bound to get five or six of the eight games correct. Last year the only upset was Tabor defeating Benedictine in the first round (11 over an 8). In 2012 there were two upsets, same with 2011.

But that’s not to say the NAIA postseason doesn’t go without it’s occasional craziness. In 1998, five underdogs garnered victories in the NAIA’s opening round of the championship series seeing the No. 1, No. 2, No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7 teams in the county knocked off in game one of the postseason. This led to a national championship game where the No. 8 Azusa Pacific Cougars won their first national championship game over the No. 11 Olivet Nazarene Tigers. Continue reading →

Jason Dannelly’s Predictions for the NAIA Quarterfinals

November 27, 2013October 27, 2014 / jasondannelly / Leave a comment

So I missed last week. Whoops. I had my picks in my head but never got time to sit in front of a computer and let them be known. However, anyone that knows how I bank a lot on the history of NAIA football in the postseason knows how I would have selected my games last week. It is very seldom that I ever pick against a team that is playing at home in the first round. The only times I’ve done it in the past is when a top team lost in the final week of the season to have a slight drop in the polls.

This year, I would not have picked against any one the home teams in the first round based on how the season has gone and if anyone would have asked me about a potential upset, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Benedictine would lose to Tabor. Tabor is a great team with one of the best coaches in the NAIA getting them prepped every week.

This week is always the most unpredictable week in the NAIA postseason. There are many factors that contribute to upsets making it even more difficult to predict just exactly will happen. Travel, thanksgiving, weather and teams being over/under rated all season all come to light.

For instance, had Morningside not slipped up to Northwestern a few weeks back we would have the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country facing off in Baldwin City, Kan. this week. But that loss dropped Morningside and what we have this week might be the best game of the postseason to date.

The “trap game” of this week is Grand View hosting Tabor. Everyone is looking at this game saying, “There’s just no way Tabor goes into Grand View and knocks off the Vikings. GV is just too good.”

Well keep in mind a lot of people said the same thing last week about Tabor against Benedictine and we all know how that worked out. Mike Gardner is just one of those coaches who you can never count his teams out of anything. They are well coached, always prepped and play extremely hard.

A match up fans of the NAIA have long awaited is Missouri Valley at Carroll College. Over the last 10 years there have been few programs in the NAIA that have been as consistent as these two. Add in the fact they also have two of the NAIA’s best coaches and it makes it even more entertaining.

Last and certainly not least is Saint Francis (Ind.) traveling south to Cumberlands. Once again, two great programs that have been around the top of the NAIA for years.

I’ll keep it brief with my predictions and give you a line on why each team wins and then predict my winner:

Tabor at Grand View: Tabor wins because they go in and out physical Grand View and win the turnover battle. Grand View wins because they keep doing what they did all year with no let down. My Prediction: Grand View.

Morningside at Baker: The team who wins this game will have fewer turnovers. It’s that simple. Both teams are going to run the ball tough and its a matter of who holds onto it. My Prediction: Morningside (and this was the toughest one to predict).

Saint Francis at Cumberlands: USF wins because they shut down the run. Cumberlands wins because they force USF into turnovers. My Prediction: Cumberlands.

Missouri Valley at Carroll College: MoVal wins if they force Carroll to turn the ball over and they score early in the game. Carroll wins if they shutdown MoVal’s offense and grind it out. My Prediction: Carroll College.

Going into the games this week, I still don’t think you can say, “Yep, this team is the favorite to win the National Championship.”

Every team has a lot of question marks and as the season wears on those get answered and exposed. Grand View is by far the most battle tested team on paper while Cumberlands has quietly gone about their business winning week after week. The amount of parity in the NAIA this year is crazy.

No. 8, No. 12, No 15 and No. 19. Those were the preseason ratings of the top four teams in the NAIA Championship Series. With no clear cut favorite in NAIA football, it only makes this weekend more exciting.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Jason Dannelly’s Predictions for the NAIA Championship Series, October 27, 2013

October 27, 2013October 27, 2014 / jasondannelly / Leave a comment

This week there is no reason for any pomp and circumstance in this article. Last week I explained just how the NAIA Championship Series works, how teams qualify and briefly looked at some of the history behind the process If you want to know how this all works, check out that article.

The biggest surprise this week was Saint Francis (Ind.) who lost to Robert Morris, 28-24 in Fort Wayne. RMU is an up and coming team with a ton of Chicago talent on their roster. The loss is mostly a surprise due to the location of it coming at home. USF is still my favorite to win the MSFA-Mideast but things have suddenly gotten a bit tighter.

Baker University defeated Missouri Valley, 13-10 also on the road. The loss won’t kill the Vikings postseason chances but it has certainly eliminated the margin of error.

Here’s a look at the conferences this week and who will potentially make the NAIA Championship Series.

CSFL: Bacone defeated Texas College to improve to 6-2 on the season. With their No. 25 ranking they only have to move up five more spots to make the postseason. Langston also won yesterday to improve to 3-4 and remaining undefeated in the conference with the Warriors. If both teams do what they are suppose to do next weekend, we could essentially have a conference championship game on November 9th for the CSFL’s automatic berth to the postseason. Langston will struggle to get to No 20 even if they win out, but it’s not impossible. Right now, Bacone and Langston are the only teams with a shot at the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Bacone

Frontier: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain continue to separate themselves from the rest of the Frontier with wins this weekend. Carroll is the obvious choice for the postseason with Rocky also looking like a solid seconds choice. However, even though Rocky defeated Dickinson State last weekend, they will have one more loss on their record when the coaches vote on this week’s Top 25 after the Bears had to forfeit on of their earlier victories due to the use of an ineligible player. The two teams need to take care of business this week before they lock horns on November 9th for a potential conference title game. The biggest test will come for the Saints as they take on Southern Oregon in Helena. If the Raiders were to upset the Saints, they would have a great chance at making the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Carroll College as Champion. Rocky and Southern Oregon with a shot at an at-large.

GPAC: Time to face facts; Morningside is the only team that has proved they absolutely deserve to be in the postseason. Concordia was the next in line before they lost to Doane College this weekend. The loss by the Bulldogs put them at 4-2 in the conference tied with Northwestern and both teams still have to play the nation’s No. 1 team this season. It’s entirely possible Concordia and/or Northwestern upsets the Mustangs, which would jump either team in the ratings and give them a chance at an at-large. But if I was a betting man, I wouldn’t count on it and I’d put my money on Morningside being the lone representative in the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Morningside.

HAAC: Missouri Valley picked up their first loss of the season making a three-way tie for second place in the HAAC behind Benedictine. The Vikings appear to be the one team that could still spoil the Ravens’ undefeated season as they two will face off Nov. 9th in Marshall, Mo. Baker has quietly had an extremely solid season with their only loss coming to Benedictine. Baker’s major test will come on Nov. 16th against Peru State as the Bobcats are the other one-loss team in the conference. Peru State has the toughest road to the postseason in front of them as they play Missouri Valley this weekend and Baker the final week of the season. I still expect three teams to make the NAIA Championship Series from the HAAC.
Today’s Prediction: Benedictine and Baker with a tossup between Mo. Valley and Peru State.

Independent: It’s going to take a miracle for someone to make it from the Independents. Mayville State at 5-3 and Ave Maria at 4-2 have the best records of the group.
Today’s Prediction: No Qualifier.

KCAC: Tabor College and Ottawa are currently in position to make the NAIA postseason but that could change for both teams in the coming weeks. Ottawa still has games against rated teams in two of their final three weeks, which includes a regular season ending game against Tabor. Both Sterling and Friends are in contention to make the postseason if they can win out and get a little help in the ratings. Sterling plays no rated teams the rest of the season giving them the edge over Friends as the Falcons still face off with Ottawa. The KCAC could get royally messed up if Friends beats Ottawa and Ottawa turns around and beats Tabor while Sterling wins out. That would give Sterling the tiebreaker over Friends and the regular season title and possibly get Friends into the postseason. Needless to say, there is still a lot of football to be played in the KCAC. I still feel like Tabor and Ottawa are solid picks but Sterling and Friends are on the verge of making me a believer.
Today’s Prediction: Tabor and Ottawa.

MSC-East: The University of the Cumberlands remains in control with Lindsey Wilson and Georgetown College knocking on the door. If both teams take care of business the rest of the season, the winner of their game on November 16th will make it to the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: U-Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT

MSC-West: Reinhardt and Campbellsville are still undefeated in conference play. If either team wins out, they should get into the Top 20 and make the postseason. That might not get decided until Nov. 16th when the two face off. However, the more telling game will likely be Nov. 9th when CU and Faulkner face off. With a 6-2 record and the highest rating in the conference, the Eagles are the most likely team to make it into the postseason on paper. But you cannot sleep on Reinhardt because of their undefeated record with two manageable games left in their regular season.
Today’s Prediction: Faulkner with Reinhardt still having a shot.

MSFA-Mideast: USF loses to Robert Morris and opens up a can of worms in the MSFA-Mideast. USF (Ind.) still controls their own destiny but Marian, USF (Ill.) and Taylor all have one loss in the conference. If the Cougars slip up again this season, we could see a giant mess in this conference’s standings. USF (Ill.) has an outside shot at a postseason berth, but I still think only one team makes it from this conference.
Today’s Prediction: Saint Francis (Ind.).

MSFA-Midwest: Grand View is in control of this conference with an 8-0 record. They should finish the season as champs if they take care of business the next two weeks. There is a huge game this weekend between Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier in Chicago as the two teams begin jockeying for second position in the conference. Neither SAU or SXU are guaranteed spots in the postseason, but if the loser of their head to head game this weekend wins out then this conference will still see two teams in the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier.

For those of you keeping score, my October 26th prediction for the NAIA postseason looks like this:

Central States Football League: Bacone College
Frontier Conference: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain
Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside College
Heart of America Athletic Conference: Benedictine, Baker and Missouri Valley/Peru State.
Independents: None
Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Tabor College and Ottawa University
Mid-South Conference East: Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT
Mid South Conference West: Faulkner University
Mid States Football Association Mideast: Saint Francis (Ind.)
Mid States Football Association Midwest: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier

The major changes I made this week are eliminating a second team from the GPAC and given some chance to teams that are still undefeated in their respective conferences. By Nov. 9th, there is going to be a pretty clear picture as to who is going to make the NAIA Championship Series. The issue we will start to see is if teams like Reinhardt and Bacone barely make the Top 20. That would mean you essentially would have to be No. 14 in the final ranking or better to make the postseason.

The final three weeks of the NAIA regular season are shaping up like they usually do. We’re going to see some extremely exciting football in the weeks to come and no one can predict just how things will shake out come selection Sunday on November 17th.