NAIA Football National Championship Photos from Jason Dannelly – Set 4
Cumberlands
NAIA Football National Championship Photos from Jason Dannelly – Set 3
NAIA Football National Championship Photos from Jason Dannelly – Set 2
NAIA Football National Championship Photos from Jason Dannelly – Set 1
Jason Dannelly: The Final Days of Rome and Ranking the Rome Title Games.
Make no doubt about it, I have loved every trip that I have made to the NAIA Football National Championships. Each year has a different feel and results in new stories to tell down the road. Maybe someday I’ll write a book about all the NAIA football title games I have attended, however I might need to change a few names along the way.
After ten consecutive title games, the excitement still has not worn off for me. I still get juiced up to see the best in the NAIA compete for the honor of being called the best in the division. However, with that excitement this year I can’t help but feel a sense of remorse heading into this weekend.
The toughest thing about this week in Rome, Ga. is knowing this is without a doubt the last time the NAIA Football Championship will be in this fine city. Since 2008, Rome has been the host of the championship and its citizens have welcomed fans of eight different NAIA football teams to enjoy their city and allowed them to enjoy it like their own. Rome has set the bar pretty high for the future host of the title game.
If the previous host city, Savannah, Tenn., introduced me to southern hospitality then the city of Rome helped to redefine and reinforce it. The people of this city and the organizers of the event have gone above and beyond to take the NAIA football championship to a new level.
Probably the biggest complaint about Savannah at the time of the switch to Rome was the facility the game was held in. The athletes were certainly honored well and there was never a moment where people felt that special feeling was lacking but the field and facility left plenty to be desired.
The switch to Rome gave the participants of the game better facilities every year the game was played. The first year the game was on grass and after a week of heavy rains, the people of Floyd County knew they needed to commit to making upgrades at historic Barron Stadium.
Since then, the field has been turfed, a video board was installed, the locker rooms were upgraded and then entrance to the facility was completely revamped. Needless to say, the facility for the game rivals that of the top in the NAIA division now.
The bar has been raised and I hope the future host in Daytona Beach, Fla. can answer the call to continue to make this event great not only for the teams involved, but also for the fans attending the game. I’ll admit, I do not know anything more than what you can google off the internet about the new site and people involved. They certainly appear to know what they are doing, but I hope they don’t forget what has made this event special since 1996.
When a fan walks into a local cafe for breakfast or goes to one of the local watering holes late at night, they are greeted with a smile and a warmness from the people of the community. It’s a calming, peacefulness that you get from your neighbor that you’ve never met before, but you know you are going to get along.
That’s the feeling I get every time I come to this city and I certainly hope that it can continue in Florida.
Ranking the NAIA Title Games in Rome, Ga.:
No. 5 – (2008) Sioux Falls def. Carroll College, 23-7. Sioux Falls had one of the NAIA’s toughest defenses of all-time in this game and they were facing Carroll College’s 3rd string QB due to all the injuries from earlier in the year.
No. 4 – (2010) Carroll def. Sioux Falls, 10-7. Neither team could get much going offensively. These two teams were so good on defense that it was going to take one big play to win this, which Carroll delivered on.
No. 3 – (2009) Sioux Falls def. Lindenwood, 25-22. Another close one. More offense than what we saw in the previous games but ultimately the USF defense came up big.
No. 2 – (2011) Saint Xavier def. Carroll College, 24-20. SXU was the first team not named Carroll or Sioux Falls to win the game since 2001. Add in the vertical jump of Mike Feminis of SXU at the end of the game I witnessed and it was truly one of the finest sports moments I was a part of.
No.1 – (2012) Marian def. Morningside, 30-27 in OT. Overtime, national championship game? What’s better than that? Great game, back and forth. Good offensive showing to keep the crowd entertained.
We will have to wait and see Saturday night where Cumberlands/Grand View stacks up. The pregame anticipation has certainly increased the excitement around this game and the interaction via social media has brought even more exhilaration to the table.
Jason Dannelly’s Preview of the 2013 NAIA Football National Championship Game
When the clock strikes zero on Saturday night in Rome, Ga. at Barron Stadium the curtain will fall on the small Georgia community’s hold as the host of the NAIA Football National Championship as well as the hopes and dreams of one of the two teams seeking their first ever national championship in NAIA football.
This year’s game will mark the 10th consecutive NAIA football championship that I have attended and the twelfth in a row that I have seen live (I watched the 2002 and 2003 broadcasts at home on television. Remember the “Empire Sports Network” anyone?). Somewhere packed away in storage are the VHS copies of those games. Yes, VHS but I digress.
While the City of Rome has been home to a great historical tradition of college football, neither of the two programs in this year’s title game can stake the same claim. After all, the City of Rome is home to “the mother who saved college football” when congress was looking to ban the sport nearly 100 years ago. It was the mother of a deceased teenage football player who stepped up and voiced that it would be her son’s desire that the sport continue to be played. If you do not believe the story, just pay a visit to Jefferson’s on Broad Street in Rome this weekend as the historical plaques are in displayed on the street corner. The City of Rome is certainly a football town and that aura will be missed next year when the game moves to Daytona Beach.
The same passion and desire burns in the bellies of the athletes from the University of the Cumberlands and Grand View University has they head into their first ever trips to the NAIA Footbal National Championship.
Cumberlands and Grand View only have 35 years of football tradition combined between their programs. To put that into perspective, realize that Grand View Coach Mike Woodley has spent more time on the gridiron at 39 years as a coach than the total history of these two teams. In fact, Grand View’s trip ties last year’s national champion Marian University for the fastest trip to the national title after a program’s inception at six years. In an effort to expand their athletic department, Cumberlands began their program in 1985, which is still considered a relatively young college football program.
This is also marks the first time in back to back years that none of the teams in the game have a national title in their trophy case since 1972-73. In those years, the NAIA had two divisions of college football (DI/DII) and East Texas State, Missouri Southern, Abilene Christian (Texas) and Northwestern (Iowa) all picked up their first national titles in those years.
The newness of the national championship is where the resemblance of these programs ends. There are few similarities in how these teams attack opponents on offensive. Grand View has been very balanced with their running game while focusing on two very solid wide receivers as their main targets of the passing game. Cumberlands plans to run the ball and then run the ball some more. Their 359 yards per game on the ground is the most in the NAIA since William Penn in 2010. Both teams are solid defensively with Cumberlands adopting more of a bend don’t break mentality while Grand View has been know to demoralize opponents who try to run the football on their vaunted defense.
The Coaches:
The NAIA is loaded with great coaches who have flown under the radar as they have built their programs into national contenders and this year is no different with Grand View’s Mike Woodley and Cumberlands’ John Bland. Both coaches were assigned the task of getting their teams to an NAIA national title game and both have done it in a fairly quick fashion. Bland lands in the title game in just his eighth season at UC while Woodley has made it to the chipper in just his sixth season. Both coaches are eerily similar too, spending time in the Houston area, Bland at Rice University and Woodley at Sam Rayburn High School, and in NCAA DI football with Woodley at Iowa State.
One thing you have to earn to be on the coaching staff of either team is trust. Both Bland and Woodley employ many assistants who have been with them since they began their tenure at their respective schools.
Quotes from the Coaches
Last week I had an opportunity to talk with both coaches and get their thoughts on the National Championship game and how they have been able to make it to Rome, Ga.
Coach Mike Woodley of Grand View University Quotes:
On the quick build of the program:
“We have a great administrative team that supports us, from the President to the Athletic Director to the financial aid director. They’ve supported us and given us everything within reason we need to be successful on and off the field. They committed to improving our facilities and allowed us to get out and recruit athletes that can help us win.”
On the play of quarterback Derek Fulton:
“When he started as a freshman last year we knew we had a pretty good one. With his improvement this year he’s really emerged as a leader.”
On wide receiver Brady Roland:
“We feel like we have the best wide receiver in the nation with him. He’s a tremendous athlete and can catch and run better than anyone in the nation.”
On Jason Gladfelder’s play this season and leadership:
“We feel like he’s the best linebacker in the country. He’s our marquee guy. But what he brings to the table is that effort everyday in the offseason in the weight room and on the practice field. He’s a student of the game and always seems to be getting to the football and staying on his teammates.”
On the Vikings All Conference honors:
“The coaches in our league really gave our defense credit this year and that was indicated by our all conference selections. Three of our defensive backs were first team all-conference and that’s almost unheard of in our league.”
On the play of Cumberlands:
“Two of the teams we played later in the season were very similar to Cumberlands. Anytime you play one of those option teams its to your advantage to have a little more time to prepare. They are a cross between option football and the Wing-T with some misdirection and jet sweep.”
On Cumberlands’ offensive athletes:
“They have some fellas that can go. They’ve got a lot of speed and several guys that can house it. We have some speed in our defensive backfield who can keep up, but they are dangerous. I’d be lying if I said we were going go in and shut these guys down, because they are good.”
On Cumberlands’ ability to throw the football:
“They’ve got a good idea on how to throw the football in this offense. A lot of those option teams really struggle to throw the football but these guys have gotten it figured out. They throw the ball a lot better than they get credit for.”
On the focus of this team:
“This team has been unbelievable in terms of having their heads on straight. After seeing Saint Xavier win it and Marian win it, our guys knew we weren’t too far away from something pretty special. Our guys have responded and stayed focus.”
Coach John Bland of the University of the Cumberlands Quotes:
On the injury of Terrance Cobb early in the season and how it changed the offense:
“With Terrance going down, he was such a big part of our offense because we thought he could go the distance every time he touched the ball. But with the progress of Adam Craig being a quarterback, he can run the football and gives us another great option in the backfield. Now defenses just couldn’t key in on one of our runningbacks and they have to account for Adam which helped our offense tremendously as the weeks went on.”
On the play of the offensive line:
“Our offensive line they have always paved the way and that’s been a pleasant surprise again this year. We lost some seniors last year and now we turn around and we have guys that have really stepped up and into roles this season. They’ve done a great job this year and we’ve been fortunate this year to stay healthy and have a very smart group playing for us”
On wide receiver Willie Gibson:
“He’s got tremendous speed and can get behind you and go the distance. Because our running game has been so strong, we’ve been able to get one on one coverage for Gibson on the outside and allowed him to be successful.”
On the defensive line:
“I feel like we have a great group that starts with Nick Smith upfront. I feel like if we faced him, he’d be the best defensive linemen we would face all year.”
On the play of the defensive backs:
“Our secondary has made plays this year. When we got to the playoffs and started facing off with these teams that have these high powered offenses we really elevated our game and stepped up even more.”
On how the offensive backfield have come together:
“Our backs are an unselfish group. They really have the mentality of an offensive line. Sometimes they might have to be the one blocking all game and then the next week they are the one getting the carries. They’ve just been so unselfish this year and they’re never expecting to be the one who gets the ball every time.”
On making it to the national championship:
“I told our team this is a dream come true but when you think about it, it isn’t a dream, this is reality. These are the dreams, hopes and goals that we shoot for every year and this year it is finally happening for our program.”
On the team’s confidence:
“The confidence that this team has is the type that I have seen in other teams when they are playing in the national championship. I’ve see those teams as a coach and as a game committeeman and feel like that’s the type of confidence we have now.”
On Grand View’s defense:
“I think have a very good defensive because they are very aggressive. They get their linebackers and safeties involved in the run game and they are getting down there and attacking. They are very good at making tackles and are very physical. They are well coached. You can tell because they just don’t give up big plays.”
On Grand View’s offense:
“They have a balanced attack and we are going to have to defend them very well if we are going to stop them. We have to continue to not give up the big plays. We have to play solid defense and must continue to tackle well when we get to the ball.”
The Team Comparison
There is no doubt the success of both teams offenses run through their signal callers. Alan Craig has burst onto the scene at Cumberlands to lead his team in rushing, passing and scoring while Grand View’s Derek Fulton leads his squad in rushing and in passing. I’m still researching this stat but this is the first time since at least 2000 that the leading rushers and passers for both teams coming into the game were quarterbacks (My thoughts are that it could be Georgetown – Eddie Eviston and NW Oklahoma State – Al Hunt, but Eviston might not have been the leading rusher, making it an even rarer occurrence).
Fulton is not a quarterback that will wow you with an NFL arm or break the ankles of opponents while running the football. He’s a leader, an extension of the offensive coordinator on the field. Fulton makes good decisions and in his two years as a starter very seldom gets rattled.
Craig enters his first year as a starter for UC replacing four-year UC starter Jay Bright. This season Craig has accounted for 37 total touchdowns for the Patriots while rushing for more than 100 yards four times this season. While UC may not appear to throw the ball much, Craig still makes good decisions when he has to chuck it, accumulating 13 touchdowns passing and just six interceptions
Cumberlands probably has the better No. 2 option to run the football in running back D’Angelo Jordan who has rushed for 1130 yards this season but don’t sleep on the team of running backs that the Vikings will put on the field. The Vikings have four workhorses with over 50 carries each this season led by Mike Perez with 111 carries and 485 yards. Additionally, backup quarterback Dorian Ballentine will come off the bench to be a running threat for the Vikings in what most people would classify as a Wildcat set.
The Vikings have the edge in terms of wide receivers in this game as Brady Roland and Taylor Goebel have found the end zone for 21 touchdowns this season. Roland’s 1220 yards receiving this season has made him one of the NAIA’s top targets and offensive threats. For Cumberlands, their go-to-guy is Willie Gibson, an athlete who will be seen all over the field. This season Gibson has led the Patriots with 638 yards and five touchdowns as a receiver but has also posed a threat as Cumberlands’ main kick and punt returner. Gibson is the type of athlete that Grand View’s defense will have to account for on every play. While his numbers do not reflect that of an NAIA All-American, defenses must respect him like he is one.
Ryan Northcutt and Shane Turnipseed lead Cumberlands’ offensive line with help from Jonathan Morrell and Tor Peterson who garnered all conference honors this season. Grand View saw Marc Osborn, Presley Godson and Tyler Ahrens be named all conference this season with Osborn bringing home the NAIA division’s Rimington Award for the nation’s top center. Ahrens, a member of last year’s JUCO national championship team at Iowa Western has not lost a game in the last two seasons.
On defense the Vikings are led by senior Jason Gladfelder at linebacker, who is a finalist for the Cliff Harris Award an award for the best small college linebackers. Dudley Bickham also helps to anchor one of the NAIA’s top rushing defenses from the linebacker spot along with Adam Wenck. Cumberlands Weston Hazelhurst leads the UC linebacker core after being honored as a first team all conference selection along with Jeremy Gardner who ranks second on the team in tackles.
First team all Mid South Conference selection Nick Smith along with Carson Newman who contributed 16.5 tackles for loss this season anchors Cumberlands’ defensive line. Grand View’s main stays upfront are Cody Redmond and Blake Goodenbour who tallied 26.5 tackles for loss this season.
Grand View defensive backs might be the deepest part of the Vikings team in terms of talent. This fall five of the Vikings defensive backs were named all conference by the MSFA including first teamers Kevin Gilkey, Joe Musselman and Kenny Jones with Lance Lewis and Zach Hollier also picking up honors. The Patriots’ Reggie Murray and Adrian Hightower were named all conference this season in the MSC. Hightower leads the team in interceptions with five while Murray is one of the teams leading tacklers with 43.
Both teams are solid in terms of special teams. They have returners who can get loose and score touchdowns and specialists that typically do not make mistakes. If the game comes down to a field goal the one stat to remember is that neither team has made a field goal longer than 36 yards this season.
Predictions for the National Championship Game
The great thing about how the NAIA championship game is set up is the way the timing of the event plays out. The Sunday and Monday after the semifinals are a blur for everyone involved. The players are letting it soak in that they have accomplished this major milestone, the administration is trying to figure out how the whole event works and parents are frantically making phone calls to figure out how they will get to Georgia to see their sons play.
Thankfully the teams have two full weeks to prepare and get healthy for the title game so that by the time the teams officially setting into Rome on Wednesday, things are not quite such a blur. Even with both teams being completely new to the situation, they will still be very prepared for what the other team has to offer.
The toughest part of this match up is Cumberlands offense. Very few teams in the NAIA run the ball like the Patriots do. All season long, Cumberlands has been the toughest matchup for everyone on their schedule because facing a veer/option look is completely different than what most teams run from week to week.
Grand View is going to be able to counter the offense of the Patriots with the experience they have gained this season against two of the NAIA’s top rushing teams, Tabor and William Penn. It’s even more advantageous for the Vikings that both of these teams came within the last few weeks on the schedule.
While UC posses the NAIA’s top rushing attack, Grand View’s defense has also proven they can shut down the run this season. In the Vikings’ games against Tabor and William Penn they only allowed 109 yards and 212 yards respectively, 203 yards and 62 yards below their season averages.
If Cumberlands wants a chance to win the national title, they will have to keep Grand View on their heels with an effective passing game much like they did in the semifinals against Carroll College.
Grand View has a very balanced offense that must take care of the football if they are going to beat Cumberlands. If the Vikings turn the ball over UC has the type of game plan that will just grind away on the defense of Grand View. Part of the reason why William Penn was able to stick within eight points of Grand View was the fact that GV gave up the ball twice on fumbles. But as luck would have it, Grand View also capitalized on a William Penn interception as Lance Lewis took an interception to the house for the first touchdown of the ball game.
Both teams are fairly solid in terms of taking care of the ball as Cumberlands is +11 in turnover margin on the season while Grand View is +8. If Grand View takes care of business with the football, they will have the advantage on offense.
The one fact that is hard to stat is how these teams have been tested this season. Cumberland has been in close games and won by seven points or less this season four times while Grand View won by five and three points to start the season and weren’t tested again late until William Penn. Given UC’s ability to come back and overcome deficits this season it would be tough to pick against the Patriots in a tight game.
Athlete for athlete, these two teams are nearly dead even. Both teams posses athletic, mobile offensive lines and quick agile defensive lines like we have come to expect from the NAIA’s best teams. The one contributing factor that neither team can control for Saturday is the weather. Several of the NAIA championship games in recent years have seen rain on game day and if this year’s contest is played in a downpour one would have to believe the advantage in the game goes the rushing offense of the Cumberlands.
Predictions for the National Title
There is no doubt arguments can be made as to why either Grand View or Cumberlands will win the national championship. Each team has advantages in several key categories and it will all depend on what weaknesses get exploited and what strengths are diminished.
The distinct advantage in this game is the rushing defense of Grand View University. With the way Cumberlands wants to run the ball, the Patriots will have the rather auspicious task of trying to figure out which way the Vikings are coming at them. Grand View’s defense literally comes at you from every angle, which will give Cumberlands running game fits in the championship game. If Cumberlands is able to run the ball on Grand View, watch out. The final score for this game could be in the 40’s with the last team to touch the ball winning the game.
There is no doubt that Cumberlands also has a great defense and will have a solid game plan for how to shut down the Vikings. However, the Patriots have giving up a lot of points to good teams this year and Grand View has the type of defense that will slow down the Patriot offense and not allow this game to become a shootout.
In the end, it is going to be Grand View’s defense slowing down the UC running game for the difference in Rome, Ga. The Vikings have proven week after week that when they are faced with a tough opponent, they step up and shut down the opposition.
Final Score Prediction: Grand View University 28 Cumberlands 17
Thanks again to everyone for a great season of NAIA College football. From the athletes, to the coaches, to everyone else involved, I truly believe this is the greatest level of college football. The commitment to be involved at this level is second to none.
As for Rome, Ga., I am going to miss coming to this community every year to watch the NAIA Football National Title. The people I have met are some of the most genuine I have ever been around. They’ve welcome fans into their town every year with open arms and allowed us to be the merriest group of college football fans in the country. Thanks to everyone from Rome involved in making the championship such a great event year after year. A personal thanks to people like Bill Petersen, Bob Berry, Ann Hortman, Rachel Rogers, Matt Green, Jeremy Bruce and my guy JT from the Old Havana Cigar Shop. There are countless others that have contributed to the success of the championship game in Rome, Ga., so please don’t be offended if you were left off the list. It goes without saying that Rome, Ga. is the definition of Southern Hospitality and one of the most special places you could ever visit in the country.
Saturday cannot come soon enough. Here’s to looking forward to seeing everyone in Georgia for the NAIA Football National Championship!
Jason Dannelly Predicts NAIA Semifinals: Carroll/Cumberlands and Grand View/Morningside
Rivalries are what make NAIA football great. There is nothing better than going to a small college game in any part of the country and witnessing two teams that truly have beef with one another duke it out on the field. Small college rivalries are the purest form of rivalries often born out of anger or spite years ago, before the current players had even heard of the school they are playing for.
But as much as I enjoy seeing Carroll College vs. Montana Tech or USF/Saint Xavier the rivalries born out of the postseason become better than one could ever imagine. Morningside at Grand View has the makings of what could become one of the NAIA’s best postseason rivalries.
All season long, I have paid attention to the world of social media and the comment sections on NAIA.org after they post the latest coaches rankings and its pretty apparent that at least the fans of Morningside and Grand View have been paying attention to one another. Not only is Saturday’s game for the right to go to Rome, Ga. but its also for the title of “Best Small College Football Team in the State of Iowa.”
Carroll College at Cumberlands takes on the same style of rivalry feel without as much familiarity. Cumberlands has had a very good football program for a number of years now and when John Bland took over the program it got the shot in the arm it needed to become recognized nationally in the NAIA. For years, UC players and coaches have watched the Saints be one of the most dominant teams in NAIA football waiting for their chance to go toe-to-toe with the most successful NAIA team in the last ten years.
This Saturday all scores will be settled and we will walk away with the two best teams in the NAIA having their tickets punched to Rome.
Predictions
Morningside at Grand View: What’s the old saying? Defense wins championships? Morningside ranks 10th in the NAIA for total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Grand View ranks 7th in the NAIA for total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. Needless to say, these two teams have dominated their competition.
The argument I would make is that Grand View saw a greater amount of offensive talent this season than Morningside did. The Vikings have had to hold down the likes of DI-FCS Drake, St. Francis (Ind.), Saint Xavier and Saint Ambrose during the regular season. While I respect the GPAC, the offensive talent this season in the conference is not on par with what the MSFA had to offer.
There is no doubt, the Morningside offense is a force to be reckoned with. They can run the ball with the best of the NAIA and if they need to play a game of pitch and catch all day they can do that too. The real question becomes whether or not Morningside’s defensive will be able to stop Grand View. Against top competition this year, Morningside’s D has given up a lot of points. Northwestern put up 38 in the Mustangs only loss, Baker put up 28, Rocky Mountain 21, Dakota Wesleyan scored 27 and Concordia had 31. Meanwhile last week’s 24 points to Tabor College was the most the Vikings had given up all season with the next highest being 21.
All stats aside, this is the sort of NAIA football game you want to see, whether its live streaming video or in Iowa’s capital city. Des Moines is a nice sports town and I hope the football fans in the area decide to come out and see what will be a great college football game. Final Prediction: Grand View 35 Morningside 27
The City of Williamsburg, Ky. is about to be invaded by one of college football’s most storied programs and greatest group of fans. It’s one of those football events I wish I could be at just to see the interaction among players, fans and coaches.
Probably the biggest misnomer about Cumberlands is that they never pass the ball. Owners of the NAIA’s best rushing offense at 365 yards per game, the Patriots still average 100 yards per game and have thrown for 18 passing touchdowns this season. So the expectation of Carroll just putting eight in the box and stuffing the UC run isn’t quite the reality of this game.
There is no doubt about it, Cumberlands is good because they can run the football and their defense will shut you down when they need to. UC is 11th in scoring defense and 21st in total defense but those stats aren’t indicative of how hard this team has had to battle late to win football games. Reinhart, Georgetown and Lindsey Wilson all had the Patriots sweating bullets until the very end of their games during the regular season.
Carroll College has also been tested at times this year and even has an early blemish to Eastern Oregon on their record. The Saints have the NAIA’s No. 2 scoring defense and 12th best total defense. But the one team statistic that has drawn the most interest from these two coaching staffs is the Saints ability to stop the run. Carroll College only gives up 104 yards per game this season and last week only surrendered 62 rushing yards to Missouri Valley.
Offensively the Saints are fourth in the NAIA running the football and 18th in total offense per game. Essentially, if you want to see two of the best rushing offenses in the NAIA you will need to watch this game.
This game is a lot more even than I think people originally thought. While Cumberlands is undefeated, they haven’t exactly walked all over their competition this season and the Saints aren’t the steamroller they were when they won national titles year after year. But both programs are very good and this game will come down to field position and turnovers. Final Prediction: Carroll College 17 Cumberlands 13.
Would I be surprised if I went 0-2 this week on my predictions? Absolutely not. That’s how close these four teams are and how competitive the NAIA has become in recent years. One could even argue that with different matchups (Morningside vs Cumberlands and Carroll vs Grand View) that the result of those games could be very different.
When the final scores come in on Saturday, two teams will have their tickets punched to Rome and two teams will be left picking up the pieces of their shattered dreams. But in the end, fans of NAIA football can be proud that four of the best representations of what your organization stands for are playing for a shot to be the best at their level.
Jason Dannelly’s Predictions for the NAIA Quarterfinals
So I missed last week. Whoops. I had my picks in my head but never got time to sit in front of a computer and let them be known. However, anyone that knows how I bank a lot on the history of NAIA football in the postseason knows how I would have selected my games last week. It is very seldom that I ever pick against a team that is playing at home in the first round. The only times I’ve done it in the past is when a top team lost in the final week of the season to have a slight drop in the polls.
This year, I would not have picked against any one the home teams in the first round based on how the season has gone and if anyone would have asked me about a potential upset, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted Benedictine would lose to Tabor. Tabor is a great team with one of the best coaches in the NAIA getting them prepped every week.
This week is always the most unpredictable week in the NAIA postseason. There are many factors that contribute to upsets making it even more difficult to predict just exactly will happen. Travel, thanksgiving, weather and teams being over/under rated all season all come to light.
For instance, had Morningside not slipped up to Northwestern a few weeks back we would have the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country facing off in Baldwin City, Kan. this week. But that loss dropped Morningside and what we have this week might be the best game of the postseason to date.
The “trap game” of this week is Grand View hosting Tabor. Everyone is looking at this game saying, “There’s just no way Tabor goes into Grand View and knocks off the Vikings. GV is just too good.”
Well keep in mind a lot of people said the same thing last week about Tabor against Benedictine and we all know how that worked out. Mike Gardner is just one of those coaches who you can never count his teams out of anything. They are well coached, always prepped and play extremely hard.
A match up fans of the NAIA have long awaited is Missouri Valley at Carroll College. Over the last 10 years there have been few programs in the NAIA that have been as consistent as these two. Add in the fact they also have two of the NAIA’s best coaches and it makes it even more entertaining.
Last and certainly not least is Saint Francis (Ind.) traveling south to Cumberlands. Once again, two great programs that have been around the top of the NAIA for years.
I’ll keep it brief with my predictions and give you a line on why each team wins and then predict my winner:
Tabor at Grand View: Tabor wins because they go in and out physical Grand View and win the turnover battle. Grand View wins because they keep doing what they did all year with no let down. My Prediction: Grand View.
Morningside at Baker: The team who wins this game will have fewer turnovers. It’s that simple. Both teams are going to run the ball tough and its a matter of who holds onto it. My Prediction: Morningside (and this was the toughest one to predict).
Saint Francis at Cumberlands: USF wins because they shut down the run. Cumberlands wins because they force USF into turnovers. My Prediction: Cumberlands.
Missouri Valley at Carroll College: MoVal wins if they force Carroll to turn the ball over and they score early in the game. Carroll wins if they shutdown MoVal’s offense and grind it out. My Prediction: Carroll College.
Going into the games this week, I still don’t think you can say, “Yep, this team is the favorite to win the National Championship.”
Every team has a lot of question marks and as the season wears on those get answered and exposed. Grand View is by far the most battle tested team on paper while Cumberlands has quietly gone about their business winning week after week. The amount of parity in the NAIA this year is crazy.
No. 8, No. 12, No 15 and No. 19. Those were the preseason ratings of the top four teams in the NAIA Championship Series. With no clear cut favorite in NAIA football, it only makes this weekend more exciting.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
Jason Dannelly’s Predictions for the NAIA Championship Series, October 27, 2013
This week there is no reason for any pomp and circumstance in this article. Last week I explained just how the NAIA Championship Series works, how teams qualify and briefly looked at some of the history behind the process If you want to know how this all works, check out that article.
The biggest surprise this week was Saint Francis (Ind.) who lost to Robert Morris, 28-24 in Fort Wayne. RMU is an up and coming team with a ton of Chicago talent on their roster. The loss is mostly a surprise due to the location of it coming at home. USF is still my favorite to win the MSFA-Mideast but things have suddenly gotten a bit tighter.
Baker University defeated Missouri Valley, 13-10 also on the road. The loss won’t kill the Vikings postseason chances but it has certainly eliminated the margin of error.
Here’s a look at the conferences this week and who will potentially make the NAIA Championship Series.
CSFL: Bacone defeated Texas College to improve to 6-2 on the season. With their No. 25 ranking they only have to move up five more spots to make the postseason. Langston also won yesterday to improve to 3-4 and remaining undefeated in the conference with the Warriors. If both teams do what they are suppose to do next weekend, we could essentially have a conference championship game on November 9th for the CSFL’s automatic berth to the postseason. Langston will struggle to get to No 20 even if they win out, but it’s not impossible. Right now, Bacone and Langston are the only teams with a shot at the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Bacone
Frontier: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain continue to separate themselves from the rest of the Frontier with wins this weekend. Carroll is the obvious choice for the postseason with Rocky also looking like a solid seconds choice. However, even though Rocky defeated Dickinson State last weekend, they will have one more loss on their record when the coaches vote on this week’s Top 25 after the Bears had to forfeit on of their earlier victories due to the use of an ineligible player. The two teams need to take care of business this week before they lock horns on November 9th for a potential conference title game. The biggest test will come for the Saints as they take on Southern Oregon in Helena. If the Raiders were to upset the Saints, they would have a great chance at making the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Carroll College as Champion. Rocky and Southern Oregon with a shot at an at-large.
GPAC: Time to face facts; Morningside is the only team that has proved they absolutely deserve to be in the postseason. Concordia was the next in line before they lost to Doane College this weekend. The loss by the Bulldogs put them at 4-2 in the conference tied with Northwestern and both teams still have to play the nation’s No. 1 team this season. It’s entirely possible Concordia and/or Northwestern upsets the Mustangs, which would jump either team in the ratings and give them a chance at an at-large. But if I was a betting man, I wouldn’t count on it and I’d put my money on Morningside being the lone representative in the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Morningside.
HAAC: Missouri Valley picked up their first loss of the season making a three-way tie for second place in the HAAC behind Benedictine. The Vikings appear to be the one team that could still spoil the Ravens’ undefeated season as they two will face off Nov. 9th in Marshall, Mo. Baker has quietly had an extremely solid season with their only loss coming to Benedictine. Baker’s major test will come on Nov. 16th against Peru State as the Bobcats are the other one-loss team in the conference. Peru State has the toughest road to the postseason in front of them as they play Missouri Valley this weekend and Baker the final week of the season. I still expect three teams to make the NAIA Championship Series from the HAAC.
Today’s Prediction: Benedictine and Baker with a tossup between Mo. Valley and Peru State.
Independent: It’s going to take a miracle for someone to make it from the Independents. Mayville State at 5-3 and Ave Maria at 4-2 have the best records of the group.
Today’s Prediction: No Qualifier.
KCAC: Tabor College and Ottawa are currently in position to make the NAIA postseason but that could change for both teams in the coming weeks. Ottawa still has games against rated teams in two of their final three weeks, which includes a regular season ending game against Tabor. Both Sterling and Friends are in contention to make the postseason if they can win out and get a little help in the ratings. Sterling plays no rated teams the rest of the season giving them the edge over Friends as the Falcons still face off with Ottawa. The KCAC could get royally messed up if Friends beats Ottawa and Ottawa turns around and beats Tabor while Sterling wins out. That would give Sterling the tiebreaker over Friends and the regular season title and possibly get Friends into the postseason. Needless to say, there is still a lot of football to be played in the KCAC. I still feel like Tabor and Ottawa are solid picks but Sterling and Friends are on the verge of making me a believer.
Today’s Prediction: Tabor and Ottawa.
MSC-East: The University of the Cumberlands remains in control with Lindsey Wilson and Georgetown College knocking on the door. If both teams take care of business the rest of the season, the winner of their game on November 16th will make it to the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: U-Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT
MSC-West: Reinhardt and Campbellsville are still undefeated in conference play. If either team wins out, they should get into the Top 20 and make the postseason. That might not get decided until Nov. 16th when the two face off. However, the more telling game will likely be Nov. 9th when CU and Faulkner face off. With a 6-2 record and the highest rating in the conference, the Eagles are the most likely team to make it into the postseason on paper. But you cannot sleep on Reinhardt because of their undefeated record with two manageable games left in their regular season.
Today’s Prediction: Faulkner with Reinhardt still having a shot.
MSFA-Mideast: USF loses to Robert Morris and opens up a can of worms in the MSFA-Mideast. USF (Ind.) still controls their own destiny but Marian, USF (Ill.) and Taylor all have one loss in the conference. If the Cougars slip up again this season, we could see a giant mess in this conference’s standings. USF (Ill.) has an outside shot at a postseason berth, but I still think only one team makes it from this conference.
Today’s Prediction: Saint Francis (Ind.).
MSFA-Midwest: Grand View is in control of this conference with an 8-0 record. They should finish the season as champs if they take care of business the next two weeks. There is a huge game this weekend between Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier in Chicago as the two teams begin jockeying for second position in the conference. Neither SAU or SXU are guaranteed spots in the postseason, but if the loser of their head to head game this weekend wins out then this conference will still see two teams in the NAIA Championship Series.
Today’s Prediction: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier.
For those of you keeping score, my October 26th prediction for the NAIA postseason looks like this:
- Central States Football League: Bacone College
- Frontier Conference: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain
- Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside College
- Heart of America Athletic Conference: Benedictine, Baker and Missouri Valley/Peru State.
- Independents: None
- Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Tabor College and Ottawa University
- Mid-South Conference East: Cumberlands and winner of LWC/GT
- Mid South Conference West: Faulkner University
- Mid States Football Association Mideast: Saint Francis (Ind.)
- Mid States Football Association Midwest: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier
The major changes I made this week are eliminating a second team from the GPAC and given some chance to teams that are still undefeated in their respective conferences. By Nov. 9th, there is going to be a pretty clear picture as to who is going to make the NAIA Championship Series. The issue we will start to see is if teams like Reinhardt and Bacone barely make the Top 20. That would mean you essentially would have to be No. 14 in the final ranking or better to make the postseason.
The final three weeks of the NAIA regular season are shaping up like they usually do. We’re going to see some extremely exciting football in the weeks to come and no one can predict just how things will shake out come selection Sunday on November 17th.
NAIA Postseason Prediction from Jason Dannelly: There is still a lot of football to be played. . .
Recently I was asked if I even follow NAIA football anymore because people haven’t been seeing article and blogs from me lately. Well, I will be the first to tell you that I very much have been following the NAIA each and every week. I still reach out to coaches to see how their team is doing and get their honest opinion on what is happening in their conference.
Many of these coaches I have been talking to and covering since my first year running the then NAIAFOOTBALL.NET, the precursor to the Victory Sports Network. Even though I still get a lot of information from these coaches, most of them turn things around on me and start asking for my opinion on what’s happening in the NAIA. So with a little prodding from a few coaches for me to get back on the horse I decided this week would be the week I dive back into the world of NAIA football publicly, mostly because I have a lot of coaches who keep asking me random questions about conference in the NAIA.
It’s easy to forget that sometimes a coach in the Mid South Conference doesn’t really have the time to dig into what’s happening in the KCAC, or vice versa, to be able to determine what might happen in the postseason.
In fact, the biggest frustration that most NAIA coaches and fans have each year is trying to decipher the playoff picture. If you haven’t been around the NAIA very long it can be tough to try to figure out if you current No. 17 rating will be enough to get you into the post season if you keep winning. Given the criteria to make the postseason there are situations where a rating like that could get you into the postseason or leave you on the outside looking in.
Before we take a look at everyone’s chances at making it into the postseason, let’s first review the criteria that you must meet in order to make it into the NAIA Championship Series.
For a team to qualify for the postseason they must:
- Win their regular season conference championship and be rated in the Top 20 of the final NAIA Coaches Poll.
- If they are not their conference champions, they must be one of the next highest rated teams in the NAIA in order to gain an at large berth.
If you meet the criteria, you receive an “automatic” berth to the postseason. Keep in mind the scenario that a conference champion or the highest rated independent team might not make the postseason because they are not rated in the Top 20 because more often than not, this is the No. 1 gripe behind teams that were left out of the postseason.
With that in mind, the automatic berths in the NAIA Championship Series are awarded to the conference champion (rated in the final Top 20) of these conferences:
- Central States Football League
- Frontier Conference
- Great Plains Athletic Conference
- Heart of America Athletic Conference
- Independents
- Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference
- Mid-South Conference East
- Mid South Conference West
- Mid States Football Association Mideast
- Mid States Football Association Midwest
Essentially, 10 of the 16 spots in the NAIA Championship Series are spoken for by conference champions, leaving 6 at large berths for the next highest rated teams. There have been some years where conference champions were rated No. 16, No. 17 and No. 18 meaning teams rated as high as No. 13 were left out of the postseason with very good records. (William Penn knows what I’m talking about.)
So without further ado, here is a rundown of what everything looks like conference by conference for the NAIA postseason.
CSFL: Bacone is the only team in charge of their destiny to make it into the postseason. The Warriors are 5-2 and currently receiving votes. Their biggest test is Langston the second to last week of the season, the type of loss given the timing of it would knock them out of the postseason. Essentially, if Bacone beats Texas College, Oklahoma Baptist, Langston and Southwestern Assemblies of God, they will be in the postseason. One loss and they are done. If Langston runs the table they will be the outright winner of the CSFL, but with four losses on the season it would be tough for raters to move them into the Top 20 but not unheard of.
Today’s Prediction: Bacone
Frontier: It’s absolutely crazy how competitive and tough this conference is year after year. Currently, Carroll College and Rocky Mountain are in the conference lead with essentially the conference championship game set for November 9th if both Rocky and Carroll win out. Now, that’s a giant if as teams like Southern Oregon, MSU-Northern and Montana Western all still have a punchers chance at making the postseason. Compound that with the fact Carroll’s only loss this season is to the 2-5 Eastern Oregon Mountaineers. The Frontier is really a “wait and see” conference for another two weeks before you can have any confidence in who will actually make the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Carroll College as Champion. Rocky with a chance at an at-large.
GPAC: Morningside is the only team I feel comfortable saying will be in the postseason. Up until this weekend, Concordia was in that category but a two point loss to Northwestern has put a some doubt into if they will end the season rated high enough to make it into the postseason and with Doane, Morningside and Dakota Wesleyan on their schedule things will not come easy. Northwestern might have a shot if they win out, but that would include upsetting Morningside in the final regular season game of the year.
Today’s Prediction: Morningside with possible at large to Concordia.
HAAC: Quite a few teams in the HAAC have an opportunity to make it into the postseason. Benedictine is in the drivers seat but the Ravens will still have to face off with Missouri Valley on November 9th. Regardless of that outcome if both teams win out, they will both be in the postseason. That’s easier said than done for Missouri Valley as the Vikings still have to face off with Baker and Peru State before they play Benedictine. Depending on how the final three weeks shake out, the HAAC will have a minimum of two teams in the postseason and a possibility of four teams. Peru State has had a heck of a season, but they might be the odd man out of the HAAC postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Benedictine, Mo. Valley and Baker.
Independent: Valley City State appeared to have the upper hand until this week’s out of NAIA loss. With a 4-3 record, they have to win out to even have a chance at making the postseason and even with that, they will finish the regular season 7-3. That’s not exactly the type of record that will pop off the screen at raters especially when you’ve lost to Mayville State and Gustavus Adolphus, two teams that a postseason qualifier needs to beat. But even with that said, the Vikings still have the best shot out of any of the NAIA Independents. Next in line are Webber International, Mayville State and Presentation; none of which are receiving votes in the NAIA poll or have enough quality wins to be considered.
Today’s Prediction: No Qualifier.
KCAC: Tabor College is in the drivers seat with a 6-1 record. Ottawa was in control of their own destiny until their loss this weekend to Sterling College who has now entered the race as a possible suitor for the postseason along with Friends. However, given the ratings and history the only teams I would feel comfortable predicting make the postseason are Tabor and Ottawa. Sterling and Friends need a lot of teams in front of them to lose in order to make the postseason and there are too many games to be played to start figuring the possibility of either of them making the postseason. Two more weeks will make the postseason picture for the KCAC a lot clearer even though the outcome of the November 16th game with Tabor and Ottawa will potentially determine the conference champion.
Today’s Prediction: Tabor and Ottawa.
MSC-East: The University of the Cumberlands has established themselves as the front-runner of the MSC-East after their victory over Georgetown College last weekend. The Patriots need to keep winning to secure a high seed in the NAIA postseason. They aren’t the type of team that is going to let the bottom drop out of their season and lose a few games at the end of the year. Given the ratings, Georgetown College and Lindsey Wilson are the only teams in any position what-so-ever to make a run at the NAIA Championship Series. LWC should finish 8-2 but their recent loss to Kentucky Christian stings. KCU is 3-1 in the conference, but their 3-4 overall record leaves them with little chance to make the postseason. LWC faces off with Georgetown the final week of the regular season meaning the winner of that game will likely be the only remaining team in the MSC-E to make the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: U-Cumberlands.
MSC-West: From looking at this conference week one and looking at it today, I can only think of one way to describe the race for a conference championship: a mess. Currently Reinhart, a first year program, is in the driver’s seat with a 3-0 conference record, 5-2 overall. Campbellsville is 2-0 in the conference but 3-3 overall while Faulkner is 1-1 in the MSC but 5-2 overall. Both Faulkner and Reinhart control their postseason likelihood if they win out. Keep in mind though, Reinhart plays Cumberlands this week, which will effect their current Top 25 rating. Faulkner does not have an easy road in front of them, but it is manageable with games against Bethel (Tenn), Belhaven, Campbellsville and Kentucky Christian. In terms of ratings and schedule, Faulkner is in the drivers seat with a lot of football still to be played.
Today’s Prediction: Faulkner
MSFA-Mideast: After last weekend’s win, Saint Francis (Ind.) is in control of their division as long as they take care of business the rest of the way. The rest of the conference is a garbled mess of good teams with average records. It’s going to be tough for another team in this conference to move up far enough in the ratings to pick up an at-large berth especially with three losses. Essentially, one of the remaining teams will have to win out in order to make the postseason.
Today’s Prediction: Saint Francis (Ind.).
MSFA-Midwest: Very competitive conference that Grand View is currently in control of at this moment. But don’t sleep on Saint Ambrose who has not lost in the conference yet and have a showdown with GV with Saint Ambrose this coming weekend. The winner will likely win the conference while the loser will probably get an at-large berth. The real question mark will be if SXU can keep winning to finish the season 8-3 and make the postseason. That would mean SXU would need to beat SAU as part of their remaining regular season run, which might put SAU’s postseason into doubt if they lose to Grand View this weekend. However, an SAU win this weekend and a loss later in the regular season to SXU would almost guarantee the MSFA-Midwest gets three teams in the postseason. In other words, there is still a lot of football to be played before I feel too good about my prediction for this conference.
Today’s Prediction: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier.
For those of you keeping score, my October 19th prediction for the NAIA postseason looks like this:
- Central States Football League: Bacone College
- Frontier Conference: Carroll College and Rocky Mountain
- Great Plains Athletic Conference: Morningside College and Concordia University
- Heart of America Athletic Conference: Benedictine, Missouri Valley and Baker
- Independents: None
- Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference: Tabor College and Ottawa University
- Mid-South Conference East: Cumberlands
- Mid South Conference West: Faulkner University
- Mid States Football Association Mideast: Saint Francis (Ind.)
- Mid States Football Association Midwest: Grand View, Saint Ambrose and Saint Xavier
There is a lot of football to be played and if the last month of the season is anything like the previous month of NAIA football most of these predictions will be proven completely wrong. That’s what makes the NAIA so exciting and so fun to cover week after week.
I have been thoroughly impressed this season with Morningside, Cumberlands, Grand View and Benedictine. Each team has shown the type of poise that is needed to make a run at an NAIA national championship while having their own unique headlines to go with their programs. With four weeks remaining in the regular season it will be interesting to see how each team finishes up and the type of momentum they carry into the postseason.
But remember… there’s still a lot of football left to be played.
Ramblings of Jason Dannelly 